Useful Brexit Quotes

Maybe this will become a proper post later.

CPI inflation

Just have a look just after we joined the EU:

https://www.inflation.eu/inflation-rates/great-britain/historic-inflation/cpi-inflation-great-britain.aspx

Chart - historic CPI inflation Great Britain - long term inflation development

Our EU debt

“The UK could walk away from the European Union in 2019 without paying a penny, the House of Lords has said, in a report bound to raise tensions with Brussels in the run-up to Brexit talks.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/04/uk-could-quit-eu-without-paying-a-penny-say-lords

WTO Article 24

Article 24 says if a free trade area or customs union is created, duties and other trade barriers should be reduced or removed on substantially all sectors of trade in the group. Non-members should not find trade with the group any more restrictive than before the group was set up.

https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/tif_e/understanding_text_e.pdf

Canada Model

“EU-Canada trade deal is only model that fits Britain’s terms – EU’s Barnier”

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-barnier-trade/eu-canada-trade-deal-is-only-model-that-fits-britains-terms-eus-barnier-idUKKBN1E214U

VISA non-requirement for EU

Listing the third countries whose nationals must be in possession of visas when crossing the external borders and those whose nationals are exempt from that requirement, as regards the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the Union

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/meetdocs/2014_2019/plmrep/COMMITTEES/LIBE/AM/2019/01-29/1174204EN.pdf

British:

image

Ireland

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Irish Border and WTO

WTO says its rules would not force EU or UK to erect hard Irish border

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/wto-says-its-rules-would-not-force-eu-or-uk-to-erect-hard-irish-border-1.3710136

Vienna Convention

Article 70 of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties says that terminating a treaty does not affect obligations incurred under the treaty “unless the treaty otherwise provides or the parties otherwise agree”.

The Treaty of the European Union arguably does provide otherwise in the form of Article 50, which Britain triggered to leave the bloc.  Article 50 says nothing about financial obligations and lawyers could argue it trumps the Vienna Convention anyway.

No Deal Concessions

UK clearing houses approved to continue EU business under no deal Brexit

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-exchanges/uk-clearing-houses-approved-to-continue-eu-business-under-no-deal-brexit-idUKKCN1Q70JN?fbclid=IwAR1BPaWY7_i1JSHgf5xH8t4KMDPNiDpPxzYiQB4Gwuya2AIdrAErEB6WqJM

European Commission reiterates flights will go ahead post Brexit

http://www.travelweekly.co.uk/articles/319768/updated-european-commission-reiterates-flights-will-go-ahead-post-brexit?fbclid=IwAR1rgyMOGnXenaEDKleDg9e_C1RZPVjibIOtisa6J_3v-SzJ3r5yqfejpO4

Broken Promises

Lots of good quotes in this video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iPcmebRH904

EU – Quangos

This chapter will look into the various EU quangos either fully or semi controlled by the EU.

There are quite a few, so watch this space.

Galileo

Official Name: GSA

Budget: 30mill 20177 however financial resources are 2290 mill

Personnel: 1167

This is a EU funded GPS system initially designed for civil purposes but it was later agreed5 to include military purposes.

GPS is crucial for monitoring and assisting troop movements; and for autonomous and automated guided weapons systems.

There are several issues with the functioning of Galileo and the US and NATO supported system2+3 both technical and political.

The civil part of the system is utilised in cooperation with Canada6 and China4.

Until recently it is estimated the UK has paid £1bn into this project8.

Questions to be asked:
  1. Does the inclusion of the military use indicate EU want it’s own army independent of NATO?
  2. If China and Canada are partners and Canada and Switzerland are on the council; why are the UK then being excluded due to Brexit?
  3. Why does the UK need access to Galileo when the UK can use the US based GPS as part of NATO?
  4. Should the EU not return the 1bn to the UK when the UK has no part in the asset being created?

Europol(900+)9

Benefiting from its central position in the European security architecture, Europol offers a unique range of services9:

  • support for law enforcement operations on the ground
  • a hub for information on criminal activities
  • a centre of law enforcement expertise

So this is mainly a coordinating organisation for the police in the EU except Denmark, which is excluded from Europol.

Europol cannot directly engage in policing or arrest anybody.

Europol is governed by the European parliament as opposed to Interpol that has a lack of governance10+11.

Drawback is however Europol can only operate inside the EU using the EU arrest warrant.

Interpol has been used for political purposes due to the lack of oversight11.

Yet to come

Silly Quangos (staff employed 2018)

These ones are not important but shows the excess in the EU.

Community Plant Variety Office (45)

Protecting new plant varieties throughout the EU helps uphold breeders’ interests and ensures that their investments in research and innovation are profitable.

European Agency for the operational management of large-scale IT systems in the area of freedom, security and justice (137)

The agency manages the 3 main IT systems dealing with visas, asylum requests and sharing information to guarantee the security of the Schengen Area.

European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training (98)

At the crossroads between education systems and the world of work, Cedefop operates as a forum, allowing the organisations with a stake in its work to share ideas and debate how best to improve vocational education and training in Europe. It shares its expertise with political organisations and the 2 sides of industry in the EU countries to help them generate learning and working opportunities.

European Institute for Gender Equality (50)

EU agency working to make gender equality a reality in the EU and beyond. For this, it provides research, data and good practices.

Eurojust (240)

It helps EU countries combat terrorism and serious organised crime involving more than one EU country.

Good Articles (subscripted)

  • None yet

References (superscripted)

  1. Galileo – GSA
  2. https://essay.utwente.nl/58840/1/scriptie_C_Guney.pdf
  3. https://www.slideshare.net/jhasik/galileo-military-benefits
  4. https://www.gsa.europa.eu/newsroom/news/eu-china-cooperation-gnss-gains-momentum
  5. https://www.dw.com/en/european-parliament-approves-military-use-of-galileo-satellite/a-3474226
  6. https://www.gsa.europa.eu/category/website-sections/gsa?page=40
  7. https://www.gsa.europa.eu/sites/default/files/annual_report_gsa_web-02.pdf
  8. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44232269
  9. Europol
  10. https://www.dw.com/en/interpol-who-polices-the-worlds-police/a-40171868
  11. https://www.liberties.eu/en/news/interpol-arrest-akhanli-sends-wrong-message/12863

Change log:

  1. 5/8-2018: Created document
  2. 7/8-2018: Minor changes to references document
  3. 26/8-2018: Added to-do and silly quangos

EU – Article 50

Just to remind myself what this says…

clip_image002[4]

Highlights in my own words

  1. Any country may leave due to own requirements (another way to say you cannot be kicked out)
  2. If any country decides to withdraw; that country needs to tell the European Council (the timer will start then)
  3. The country leaves the EU based on an agreed date or if no date is agreed then 2 years after the timer started above
  4. The country leaving will be left out of meetings concerning the country leaving the EU
  5. The country can re-join again later based like any other non-EU country (no hard feelings!)

Original text below from http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/HTML/?uri=CELEX:12012M050&from=EN

Article 50

  1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.
  2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.
  3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.
  4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.
    A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
  5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.

Article 218(3)

Just to ensure nothing sinister is in here…

  • The Commission, or the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy where the agreement envisaged relates exclusively or principally to the common foreign and security policy, shall submit recommendations to the Council, which shall adopt a decision authorising the opening of negotiations and, depending on the subject of the agreement envisaged, nominating the Union negotiator or the head of the Union’s negotiating team.

European Council

Just to be clear who can actually approve or reject extending A50…

  • The members of the European Council are the heads of state or government of the 28 EU member states, the European Council President and the President of the European Commission.

Brexit – Remember the Results

I’m making this post as the referendum details keeps being questioned in various discussions. Also to preserve the facts in case they disappear off the BBC website.

Most of the facts are thanks to the BBC website:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/eu_referendum/results

Based on that I did a few additional calculations…but all facts!

Result

image

Electorate

Electorate: 46,501,241 (100%)
Turnout:  33,551,983 (72.2%)

Detailed Result

Based on Votes

Votes: 33,551,983 (100%)
Leave: 17,410,742 (51,9%)
Remain: 16,141,241 (48,1%)
Gap: 1,269,501 (3.78%)
Rejected: 26,033 (0.078%)

Based on Electorate (includes undecided)

Electorate: 46,501,241 (100%)
Leave: 17,410,742 (37.4%)
Remain: 16,141,241 (34.7%)
Gap: 1,269,501 (2.73%)
Did not vote: 12,949,258 (27.9%)
Rejected: 26,033 (0.056%)

Votes

image

England

England: 28,455,402 (100%)
Leave: 15,188,406 (53.4%)
Remain: 13,266,996 (46.6%)
Gap: 1,921,410 (6.75%)

Scotland

Scotland: 2,679,513 (100%)
Leave: 1,018,322 (38.0%)
Remain: 1,661,191 (62.0%%)
Gap: –642,869 (-24.0%)

Wales

Wales: 1,626,919 (100%)
Leave: 854,572 (52.5%)
Remain: 772,347 (47.5%)
Gap: 82,225 (5.05%)

Northern Ireland

Northern Ireland: 790,149 (100%)
Leave: 349,442 (44.2%)
Remain: 440,707 (55.8%)
Gap: -91,265 (11.6%)

Turnout

2016: 72.2%

1975: 64.6%

Historical Election Turnouts with EU referendum turnouts:

image

EU – Economy of Brexit

This is part of the EU Fact File

Verdict: NEUTRAL – YES it CAN be proved that either leaving or joining the EU does NOT impact the ECONOMY

So both Brexit remain and leave campaigns struggle to prove what would happen if we either leave or stay in the EU?

Strangely enough – nobody has thought of looking at what happens when you join the EU.

Leaving the EU would then be the reverse effect of joining!

So if a country get a huge boost by joining if would make sense a similar bust would occur when leaving.

Lets look at some of the late comers in the EU – lets pick the bigger ones of the new EU countries:

  • Poland: joined 2004 with a population of about 38 million
  • Hungary: joined 2004 with a population of about 10 million
  • Romania: joined 2007 with a population of 20 million

You can add the smaller ones yourself but they would almost be zero as it goes to show the new EU countries had a very low development level per capita compared to the old EU countries.

To see if the population got richer you need to look at GDP PER CAPITA.

GDP TOTAL or % GROWTH is not used – as these numbers does not show if people are getting richer or poorer inside the country.

A country may show an overall GDP growth – but if this is caused by immigration then this may not result in anybody getting richer (except for the immigrants whilst in the country).

What we need to understand is – if we (human beings) are better of inside or outside of the EU – hence the use of GDP PER CAPITA.

I have added a couple of non-EU countries for comparison.

Feel free to add your own but remember they have to start off with a similar population and GDP starting point so you don’t compare apples and oranges.

You can play around with the graph on the Wold Bank website by clicking on the graph below.

The interesting period is before and after 2004/2007 where the new EU countries joined the EU:

image

Points to make of the above graph:

  • Poland and Hungary around year 2004 – did have growth – but not more than Romania, that had not joined yet
  • Romania around year 2007 – even after joining the trend followed other EU10 countries – no impact it seems
  • Malaysia having a population of 28 million – did similarly to the new EU countries and did better than Hungary with a similar economy
  • Switzerland and Norway did as well or better while not being in the EU even though these countries are already highly developed
  • United Kingdom and Germany did NOT do well at all – similar to other large EU countries (you can add these yourself!)

Some conclusions to be made:

  1. The new and undeveloped EU countries would have had a similar growth outside the EU (compared to Malaysia)
  2. The old and developed EU countries would have had a better growth outside the EU (compared to Switzerland and Norway)

Questions to be asked (maybe covered in a later article):

  1. Why do the IN campaign and other organisations believe we will be economically worse off my leaving the EU mind boggling?
  2. How much could the United Kingdom have grown if been outside the EU if we had followed countries like Switzerland and Norway?
  3. Would the United Kingdom get a better or worse deal than Switzerland and Norway if the UK left EU?

Good Articles (subscripted)

  1. None

References (superscripted)

  1. World Bank open data:http://beta.data.worldbank.org/

Change log:

  1. Created 4/6-2016