Coronavirus – Facts

What is COVID19?

So also these posts regarding the virus:

It’s not the flu:

  • Flu does not attack the lungs in normal people
  • Flu is prevalent in colder climates; COVID19 doesn’t care about the weather

Longer incubation period (up to 24 days):

  • COVID19 up to 24 days and 1-2 weeks on average
  • Flu less than a week

More infectious (R0 > 6):

  • R0 is how many a single person may infect
  • COVID19 R0 is above 6 – but during lock-down more like 1
  • COVID19 UK cases doubles every 2.6-2.7 days as of 9/3
  • Flu R0 is around 1.2

More persistent:

  • COVID19 on hard surfaces up to 9 days
  • Flu a couple of hours

More deadly:

  • COVID19 as WHO says 3.4% and in Italy 4-5%
  • COVID19 once hospitals are overrun mortality will increase
  • Flu is 0.1%
  • Looks like 10% of hospitalised cases (current total cases) dies

Long Term Effects

  • Flu: none
  • COVID19: in many cases damage to multiple organs especially lungs

More hospitalisations:

  • COVID19 in Italy 8% of confirmed cases are critical as of 10/3
  • Flu < 0.001%

How to Avoid

  • Wash hands (min 20 seconds)
  • Use good hand sanitisers (60-70% alcohol minimum)
  • Wear masks (yes that is correct and if not just to protect others against you)
  • Wear goggles (you can get this through your eyes and just look how health professionals are dressed)
  • Keep distance (>3 meters)

Unanswered Questions

These items are only answered in rumours so only showing the questions:

  • Can you get infected twice?
  • How many needs to be immune (have had the virus) before it stops?
  • If the health system is overrun what will the mortality then be?
  • How early should draconian stay-put measure be put in place to prevent uncontrolled spread?

References

  1. Most of the data is from: https://www.peakprosperity.com/
  2. Good graphs: https://covid19info.live/
  3. Good numbers (includes critical): https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
  4. Bad situation in Italy as-of 7/3: https://www.corriere.it/cronache/20_marzo_07/coronavirus-stiamo-creando-terapie-intensive-anche-corridoi-cb01190a-60be-11ea-8d61-438e0a276fc4.shtml