Public Sector Employment

Often talked about – but what are the facts…

I will be looking at full time equivalents (FTE); seasonally adjusted (SA) all readily available from ONS.

Observations:

  • Public sector employment is still high even during the conservatives
  • Central government has increased mostly due to NHS staff increases
  • Local services has been decreased mostly due to cuts in social and health services
  • NHS staff has increased also during conservative government
  • Social services has been cut during conservative government
  • HM Forces being reduced. Only increase was during labour
  • Administrations is being cut during conservative government

Governments since:

  • 1979: Conservative
  • 1997: Labour
  • 2010: Conservative

Total Public Sector

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Looking at the numbers below it does not add up:

2,602,000 + 1,610,000 = 4,212,000 so missing 285,000 FTE’s somewhere to get 4,497,000

Labour was in power from 1997 to 2010, which may explain the rising slope from 1999 to 2008.

The big jump in 2008 was due to bank nationalisations during the 2008 crisis.

Still in 2017 the public sector employment is high even during a conservative government.

Seems like austerity only applies to the private sector.

Central government

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Increasing even with a conservative government.

Local government

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Local services has been cut during the conservative government.

Public Administration

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Administration has been reduced during the conservative government.

NHS

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NHS staff has significantly increased since 1999 during both governments.

Hiring was very high during the 2008 crisis, which may have worsened the deficit.

Health and Social

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May explain cuts to social and mental services and reduction in local government.

HM Forces

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HM Forces has been continuously being reduced during both governments.

Only increases has been during labour governments.

Education

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Massive cut in 2012 but still higher than in early labour days.

Police

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Been cut during conservative government and still falling.

Civil Service

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Been falling since 2005 during both governments.

Other

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This clearly shows the nationalised businesses and the selling of Royal Mail in 2013.

Unemployment

Based on ONS employment figures.

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So nearly no unemployed then?

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Seems like we are missing around 20%, which is the “economically inactive”:

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Which translates to:

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4.6% + 74.8% + 21.5% = 101%

ONS states:

Everybody aged 16 or over is either employed, unemployed or economically inactive

The definition of each of these are for people aged 16 to 64:

  • Employed:
    • had paid work (as an employee or self-employed)
    • in a job that they were temporarily away from
    • on government-supported training and employment programmes, and those doing unpaid family work
  • Unemployed
    • without a job, have been actively seeking work in the past 4 weeks and are available to start work in the next 2 weeks
    • out of work, have found a job and are waiting to start it in the next 2 weeks
  • Economically Inactive
    • without a job who have not sought work in the last 4 weeks and/or are not available to start work in the next 2 weeks
    • students, people looking after family and home, long-term sick and disabled, temporarily sick and disabled, retired people and discouraged workers

Employed

You are counted as employed even if you have a “zero hour contract” as you are in a job you are “temporarily away from”.

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Unemployed

The key “actively seeking work” means anybody getting Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA).

Lots of people would not register for JSA as they would not get anything anyway.

Some examples from JSA rules where you would not get anything hence people would not sign-on then:

  • More than £16,000 in savings
  • Your partner works more than 24 hours per week

Economically Inactive

This is complex but looking at the data below it seems to be falling.

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Male inactivity is increasing not sure why?:

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Female inactivity is falling as more females are having a career:

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It may be explained by more people on benefits but needs further investigation as graph below is not in % of total population:

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British Governments

Often discussed when things took place what government to blame…

Recent governments from Wikipedia:

Year From

Prime Minister

Party

Ministry

1979

Margaret Thatcher

Conservative

First Thatcher ministry

1983

Margaret Thatcher

Conservative

Second Thatcher ministry

1987

Margaret Thatcher

Conservative

Third Thatcher ministry

1990

John Major

Conservative

First Major ministry

1992

John Major

Conservative

Second Major ministry

1997

Tony Blair

Labour

Blair ministry

2001

Tony Blair

Labour

Blair ministry

2005

Tony Blair

Labour

Blair ministry

2007

Gordon Brown

Labour

Brown ministry

2010

David Cameron

Conservative and Liberal Democrat

Cameron–Clegg coalition

2015

David Cameron

Conservative

Second Cameron ministry

2016

Theresa May

Conservative

First May ministry

2017

Theresa May

Conservative with DUP support

Second May ministry

EU – Article 50

Just to remind myself what this says…

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Highlights in my own words

  1. Any country may leave due to own requirements (another way to say you cannot be kicked out)
  2. If any country decides to withdraw; that country needs to tell the European Council (the timer will start then)
  3. The country leaves the EU based on an agreed date or if no date is agreed then 2 years after the timer started above
  4. The country leaving will be left out of meetings concerning the country leaving the EU
  5. The country can re-join again later based like any other non-EU country (no hard feelings!)

Original text below from http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/HTML/?uri=CELEX:12012M050&from=EN

Article 50

  1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.
  2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.
  3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.
  4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.
    A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
  5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.

Article 218(3)

Just to ensure nothing sinister is in here…

  • The Commission, or the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy where the agreement envisaged relates exclusively or principally to the common foreign and security policy, shall submit recommendations to the Council, which shall adopt a decision authorising the opening of negotiations and, depending on the subject of the agreement envisaged, nominating the Union negotiator or the head of the Union’s negotiating team.

Brexit – Remember the Results

I’m making this post as the referendum details keeps being questioned in various discussions. Also to preserve the facts in case they disappear off the BBC website.

Most of the facts are thanks to the BBC website:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/eu_referendum/results

Based on that I did a few additional calculations…but all facts!

Result

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Electorate

Electorate: 46,501,241 (100%)
Turnout:  33,551,983 (72.2%)

Detailed Result

Based on Votes

Votes: 33,551,983 (100%)
Leave: 17,410,742 (51,9%)
Remain: 16,141,241 (48,1%)
Gap: 1,269,501 (3.78%)
Rejected: 26,033 (0.078%)

Based on Electorate (includes undecided)

Electorate: 46,501,241 (100%)
Leave: 17,410,742 (37.4%)
Remain: 16,141,241 (34.7%)
Gap: 1,269,501 (2.73%)
Did not vote: 12,949,258 (27.9%)
Rejected: 26,033 (0.056%)

Votes

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England

England: 28,455,402 (100%)
Leave: 15,188,406 (53.4%)
Remain: 13,266,996 (46.6%)
Gap: 1,921,410 (6.75%)

Scotland

Scotland: 2,679,513 (100%)
Leave: 1,018,322 (38.0%)
Remain: 1,661,191 (62.0%%)
Gap: –642,869 (-24.0%)

Wales

Wales: 1,626,919 (100%)
Leave: 854,572 (52.5%)
Remain: 772,347 (47.5%)
Gap: 82,225 (5.05%)

Northern Ireland

Northern Ireland: 790,149 (100%)
Leave: 349,442 (44.2%)
Remain: 440,707 (55.8%)
Gap: -91,265 (11.6%)

Turnout

2016: 72.2%

1975: 64.6%

Historical Election Turnouts with EU referendum turnouts:

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