Categories
Coronavirus Notes

Coronavirus – Consequences

image

Just some notes on what should happen once this COVID19 crisis settles.

Other notes:

This note will change, as I consider the mess I have seen taking place during this crisis.

You are on your own

This applies both to the country and yourself.

Country issues:

Personal Issues:

…and much more.

Some of the above limitations were reversed once the disease got under control; but what if the COVID19 had been more serious?

These issues highlights the unpreparedness in our society.

Essentially as a country you must be able to rely on your own supplies, and/or have very strict bilateral agreements in place to ensure supply during a global crisis.

Additionally as a person you need to be aware and foresee your own needs in a situation like this.

What to Do

Anyone

  • Start preparing as soon as a problem starts elsewhere in the world (China)
  • Monitor twitter feeds and other underground news from that country

As a Country

  • Don’t trust what governments say (like China “we have it under control”)
  • Don’t trust what international organisations say (like WHO “China got it under control”)
  • Don’t trust main stream news in other countries (controlled by government)
  • Have one or more plans ready, both for pandemics and wars (yes, it is just project planning really)
  • Always have stockpiles of PPE and key medicines if possible
  • Monitor arrivals (airplanes, boats/ships and anybody on foot or on wheels)
  • Stop uncontrolled arrivals into the country
  • Controlled arrivals to self-isolate or forced isolation
  • Redefine citizenship to where you belong (place you live, pay tax and would defend) so people are repatriated to the right place
  • Identify strategic businesses, critical resources, products and services by law
  • Local resources must be protected and supported by law
  • Prevent critical products and services being off-shored
  • Prevent strategic businesses being sold to foreign businesses
  • Subsidise strategic business
  • Mandate people to work from home if possible, to reduce pollution and dependency on fossil fuels
  • Have an agency like the US DHS – Department of Homeland Security – to stockpile resources from PPE and antivirals to inflatable hospitals

Examples of critical resources and strategical businesses:

  • Iron/Steel (China is now main supplier of steel)
  • Farming (yes, we need food)
  • Food shops (ensure distribution)
  • Coal (yes, if oil supplies stops, we better start using coal again)
  • Medicines (most medicines are now from China and India)
  • Weapons factories
  • Research facilities (especially medical, biological and other high-tech)

As a Person:

  • Don’t trust what the government tells you (like “masks don’t help”)
  • Don’t trust what main stream media tell you (controlled by government)
  • Prepare for lockdown and supply problems for 2-3 months minimum
  • Prepare exit/entry procedures for your property
  • Keep stocks of  the physical items below for the duration of the above period
  • Keep the pantry full and fresh; cycling contents regularly
  • PPE especially masks and goggles
  • Vitamins, especially C and D
  • Disinfectants, soap, 2-propanol, alcohol
  • Cash, gold and silver and have bank accounts in different banks
  • Procure thermometer, blood pressure monitor, pulse oximeter (SpO2)

Questions

  • Who instigated “herd immunity” in the UK?
  • Did the UK government not see the COVID19 coming back in Jan-2020?
  • Why did the UK not have plans ready (pre-planned) for a pandemic?
  • Where did the Coronavirus originate from? (hint: not from people eating bats; it is an obvious cover story)
Categories
Coronavirus Notes

Coronavirus – Tracker

This is a daily tracker with official number compared to my formula in the Math post.

So also these posts regarding the virus:

Highlights:

  • All mostly linear now, so putting all in one graph
  • Mortality is now, when comparing the two linear slopes just below 15%

Actual deaths to cases ratio:

image

Daily deaths (not showing cases as that depends on testing effort):

image

Categories
Coronavirus Notes

Coronavirus – Math

So also these posts regarding the virus:

A long as the government is not doing any draconian measures virus spread will be exponential.

In short the growth looks like a hockey stick.

The UK graph taken from 10/3 (ref 2 – click Global, Europe and then UK):

image_thumb1

Compared to Italy same date:

image_thumb3

Problem is curve shape is the same, meaning UK has the same exponential growth as Italy but number of cases are just a few days behind.

So the UK is where Italy was on 25/2; so the UK is around 2 weeks behind Italy before chaos hits (see ref 4).

UK Data as of 10/3:

image

Using doubling d = 2.8 and assuming start s = 16 cases arrived from abroad and x is number of days since start of patient zero, we get:

y=s*2(x⁄d) = 16 * 2(x/2.8)

This formula ties-in with ref 5.

Gives the following data:

image

So pretty close to actual data.

Graph is looking like this:

image_thumb[3]

Extrapolating on this; the UK will be looking like Italy by 23-24/3:

image

Also remember the real spread is 5-10 days ahead due to the incubation period, where people may not have been tested yet due to lack of symptoms.

Even if the calculation is slightly wrong the exponential nature of this makes the formula precise within a couple of days.

If the UK government do not introduce draconian measures, the forecast may look like this; assuming up to 80% of the population will be infected:

image

With a mortality according to WHO at 3.4% this is a scary outlook.

It gets even more scary if the health system is overrun, which may to a degree explain the current Italian mortality of 6%.

We can only hope the government comes to it’s senses in due time and introduce very draconian measures to contain the spread.

References

  1. Most of the data is from: https://www.peakprosperity.com/
  2. Good graphs: https://covid19info.live/
  3. Good numbers (includes critical): https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
  4. Bad situation in Italy as-of 7/3: https://www.corriere.it/cronache/20_marzo_07/coronavirus-stiamo-creando-terapie-intensive-anche-corridoi-cb01190a-60be-11ea-8d61-438e0a276fc4.shtml
  5. Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doubling_time
  6. Columbia University: http://ccnmtl.columbia.edu/projects/biology/lecture1/expogrow.html
Categories
Coronavirus Notes

Coronavirus – Facts

What is COVID19?

So also these posts regarding the virus:

It’s not the flu:

  • Flu does not attack the lungs in normal people
  • Flu is prevalent in colder climates; COVID19 doesn’t care about the weather

Longer incubation period (up to 24 days):

  • COVID19 up to 24 days and 1-2 weeks on average
  • Flu less than a week

More infectious (R0 > 6):

  • R0 is how many a single person may infect
  • COVID19 R0 is above 6
  • COVID19 UK cases doubles every 2.6-2.7 days as of 9/3
  • Flu R0 is around 1.2

More persistent:

  • COVID19 on hard surfaces up to 9 days
  • Flu a couple of hours

More deadly:

  • COVID19 as WHO says 3.4% and in Italy 4-5%
  • COVID19 once hospitals are overrun mortality will increase
  • Flu is 0.1%
  • Looks like 10% of hospitalised cases (current total cases) dies

More hospitalisations:

  • COVID19 in Italy 8% of confirmed cases are critical as of 10/3
  • Flu < 0.001%

How to Avoid

  • Wash hands (min 20 seconds)
  • Use good hand sanitisers (60-70% alcohol minimum)
  • Wear masks (yes that is correct and if not just to protect others against you)
  • Wear goggles (you can get this through your eyes and just look how health professionals are dressed)
  • Keep distance (>3 meters)

Unanswered Questions

These items are only answered in rumours so only showing the questions:

  • Can you get infected twice?
  • How many needs to be immune (have had the virus) before it stops?
  • If the health system is overrun what will the mortality then be?
  • How early should draconian stay-put measure be put in place to prevent uncontrolled spread?

References

  1. Most of the data is from: https://www.peakprosperity.com/
  2. Good graphs: https://covid19info.live/
  3. Good numbers (includes critical): https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
  4. Bad situation in Italy as-of 7/3: https://www.corriere.it/cronache/20_marzo_07/coronavirus-stiamo-creando-terapie-intensive-anche-corridoi-cb01190a-60be-11ea-8d61-438e0a276fc4.shtml
Categories
EU Politics

The Withdrawal Agreement

This is the rule that governs during the transition phase.

The official title:

Agreement on the withdrawal of the
United Kingdom of Great Britain and
Northern Ireland from the European
Union and the European Atomic
Energy Community

Dated: 19 October 2019

There are a few articles that ties in with the political statement that we need to have a look at:

  • Article 157: The United Kingdom’s obligations after 31 December 2020
  • Article 178 INCOMPLETE: Temporary remedies in case of non-compliance
  • Article 179 INCOMPLETE: Review of any measure taken after temporary remedies
  • Article 184 INCOMPLETE: Negotiations on the future relationship

Maybe more to come…

Again no index but slightly better structured so hereby a little overview:

PART ONE: COMMON PROVISIONS: Article 1-8

PART TWO: CITIZENS’ RIGHTS

  • TITLE I: GENERAL PROVISIONS: Article 9-12
  • TITLE II: RIGHTS AND OBLIGATIONS: Article 13-29
  • TITLE III: COORDINATION OF SOCIAL SECURITY SYSTEMS: Article 30-36
  • TITLE IV: OTHER PROVISIONS: Article 37-39

PART THREE: SEPARATION PROVISIONS

  • TITLE I: GOODS PLACED ON THE MARKET: Article 40-46
  • TITLE II: ONGOING CUSTOMS PROCEDURES: Article 47-50
  • TITLE III: ONGOING VALUE ADDED TAX AND EXCISE DUTY MATTERS: Article 51-53
  • TITLE IV: INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY: Article 54-61
  • TITLE V: ONGOING POLICE AND JUDICIAL COOPERATION IN CRIMINAL MATTERS: Article 62-65
  • TITLE VI: ONGOING JUDICIAL COOPERATION IN CIVIL AND COMMERCIAL MATTERS: Article 66-69
  • TITLE VII: DATA AND INFORMATION PROCESSED OR OBTAINED BEFORE THE END OF THE TRANSITION PERIOD,
    OR ON THE BASIS OF THIS AGREEMENT: Article 70-74
  • TITLE VIII: ONGOING PUBLIC PROCUREMENT AND SIMILAR PROCEDURES: Article 75-78
  • TITLE IX: EURATOM RELATED ISSUES: Article 79-85
  • TITLE X: UNION JUDICIAL AND ADMINISTRATIVE PROCEDURES: Article 86-97
  • TITLE XI: ADMINISTRATIVE COOPERATION PROCEDURES
    BETWEEN MEMBER STATES AND THE UNITED KINGDOM: Article 98-100
  • TITLE XII: PRIVILEGES AND IMMUNITIES: Article 101-119
  • TITLE XIII: OTHER ISSUES RELATING TO THE FUNCTIONING
    OF THE INSTITUTIONS, BODIES, OFFICES AND AGENCIES OF THE UNION: Article 120-125

PART FOUR: TRANSITION: Article 126-132

PART FIVE: FINANCIAL PROVISIONS: Article 133-157

PART SIX: INSTITUTIONAL AND FINAL PROVISIONS:

  • TITLE I: CONSISTENT INTERPRETATION AND APPLICATION: Article 158-163
  • TITLE II: INSTITUTIONAL PROVISIONS: Article 164-166
  • TITLE III: DISPUTE SETTLEMENT: Article 167-181
  • TITLE IV: FINAL PROVISIONS: Article 182-185

PROTOCOLS

PROTOCOL ON IRELAND/NORTHERN IRELAND: Article 1-19

  • ANNEX 1: PROVISIONS OF UNION LAW REFERRED TO IN ARTICLE 2(1)
  • ANNEX 2: PROVISIONS OF UNION LAW REFERRED TO IN ARTICLE 5(4)
  • ANNEX 3: PROVISIONS OF UNION LAW REFERRED TO IN ARTICLE 8
  • ANNEX 4: PROVISIONS OF UNION LAW REFERRED TO IN ARTICLE 9
  • ANNEX 5: PROVISIONS OF UNION LAW
    REFERRED TO IN ARTICLE 10(1)
  • ANNEX 6: PROCEDURES REFERRED TO IN ARTICLE 10(2)
  • ANNEX 7: PROCEDURES REFERRED TO IN ARTICLE 16(3)

PROTOCOL RELATING TO THE SOVEREIGN BASE AREAS OF THE UNITED KINGDOM
OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND IN CYPRUS: Article 1-13

PROTOCOL ON GIBRALTAR: Article 1-6

  • ANNEX I: SOCIAL SECURITY COORDINATION
  • ANNEX II: PROVISIONS OF UNION LAW REFERRED TO IN ARTICLE 41(4)
  • ANNEX III: TIME LIMITS FOR THE SITUATIONS
    OR CUSTOMS PROCEDURES REFERRED TO IN ARTICLE 49(1)
  • ANNEX IV: LIST OF NETWORKS, INFORMATION SYSTEMS
    AND DATABASES REFERRED IN ARTICLES 50, 53, 99 AND 100
  • ANNEX V:EURATOM
  • ANNEX VI: LIST OF ADMINISTRATIVE COOPERATION PROCEDURES
    REFERRED TO IN ARTICLE 98
  • ANNEX VII: LIST OF ACTS/PROVISIONS REFERRED TO IN ARTICLE 128(6)
  • ANNEX VIII: RULES OF PROCEDURE OF THE JOINT COMMITTEE AND SPECIALISED COMMITTEES
  • ANNEX IX: RULES OF PROCEDURE

Here we go, only looking at the most relevant sections.

Article 157: The United Kingdom’s obligations after 31 December 2020

1. Based on the accounts of the agencies, to the extent that the relevant liabilities have not been
provisioned on 31 December 2020, the United Kingdom shall pay its share of the following
liabilities in accordance with its contribution key for each of those agencies on the basis of their
audited accounts on 31 December 2020:

(a) the pension liabilities for the personnel of the European Defence Agency, the European Union
Institute for Security Studies, and the European Union Satellite Centre;

(b) any liabilities arising from the liquidation of the Western European Union.

2. The payment in relation to the liabilities referred to in paragraph 1 shall be made by
30 June 2021.

Contribution key based on 31 December 2020 will be used to pay future pension liabilities payable 30 June 2021.

Nothing about how much this is but we must assume this is part of the original £39bn.

Article 178: Temporary remedies in case of non-compliance

1. If the arbitration panel rules in accordance with Article 177(2) that the respondent has failed
to comply with the arbitration panel ruling referred to in Article 173, at the request of the
complainant it may impose a lump sum or penalty payment to be paid to the complainant. In
determining the lump sum or penalty payment, the arbitration panel shall take into account the
seriousness of the non-compliance and underlying breach of obligation, the duration of the
non-compliance and underlying breach of obligation.

2. If, 1 month after the arbitration panel ruling referred to in paragraph 1, the respondent has
failed to pay any lump sum or penalty payment imposed on it, or if, 6 months after the arbitration
panel ruling referred to in Article 177(2), the respondent persists in not complying with the
arbitration panel ruling referred to in Article 173, the complainant shall be entitled, upon
notification to the respondent, to suspend obligations arising from:

(a) any provision of this Agreement other than those contained in Part Two; or

(b) parts of any other agreement between the Union and the United Kingdom under the
conditions set out in that agreement.

The notification shall specify the provisions which the complainant intends to suspend. Before
deciding to suspend parts of an agreement referred to in point (b) the complainant shall first
consider whether the suspension of the provision of this Agreement in accordance with point (a)
would be an appropriate response to the breach. Any suspension shall be proportionate to the breach
of obligation concerned, taking into account the gravity of the breach and the rights in question and,
where the suspension is based on the fact that the respondent persists in not complying with the
arbitration panel ruling referred to in Article 173, whether a penalty payment has been imposed on
the respondent and has been paid or is still being paid by the latter.

The complainant may implement the suspension at any moment but not earlier than 10 days after
the date of the notification, unless the respondent has requested arbitration under paragraph 3.

3. If the respondent considers that the extent of the suspension set out in the notification referred
to in paragraph 2 is not proportionate, it may request the original arbitration panel in writing to rule
on the matter. Such request shall be notified to the complainant before the expiry of the 10-day
period referred to in paragraph 2. The arbitration panel shall notify its ruling to the Union and the
United Kingdom within 60 days of the date of submission of the request. Obligations shall not be
suspended until the arbitration panel has notified its ruling, and any suspension shall be consistent
with the arbitration panel ruling.

4. In the event of the original arbitration panel, or some of its members, being unable to
reconvene to consider a request under paragraph 2, a new arbitration panel shall be established as
set out in Article 171. In such cases, the period for notifying the ruling shall be 90 days from the
date of establishment of the new arbitration panel.

5. The suspension of obligations shall be temporary and shall be applied only until any measure
found to be inconsistent with the provisions of this Agreement has been withdrawn or amended, so
as to achieve conformity with the provisions of this Agreement, or until the Union and the United
Kingdom have agreed to otherwise settle the dispute.

Article 179: Review of any measure taken after temporary remedies

1. Where the complainant has suspended obligations in accordance with Article 178 or where
the arbitration panel has imposed a penalty payment on the respondent in accordance with
Article 178(1), the respondent shall notify the complainant of any measure it has taken to comply
with the ruling of the arbitration panel and of its request for an end to the suspension of obligations
applied by the complainant or to the penalty payment.

2. If the Union and the United Kingdom do not reach an agreement on whether the notified
measure brings the respondent into conformity with the provisions of this Agreement within
45 days of the date of submission of the notification, either party may request the original
arbitration panel in writing to rule on the matter. Such request shall be notified simultaneously to
the other party. The arbitration panel ruling shall be notified to the Union and the United Kingdom
and to the Joint Committee within 75 days of the date of submission of the request.

If the arbitration panel rules that the respondent has brought itself into conformity with this
Agreement, or if the complainant does not, within 45 days of the submission of the notification
referred to in paragraph 1, request that the original arbitration panel rule on the matter:

(a) the suspension of obligations shall be terminated within 15 days of either the ruling of the
arbitration panel or the end of the 45-day period;

(b) the penalty payment shall be terminated on the day after either the ruling of the arbitration
panel or the end of the 45-day period.

3. In the event of the original arbitration panel, or some of its members, being unable to
reconvene to consider a request under paragraph 2, a new arbitration panel shall be established as
set out in Article 171. The period for notifying the ruling shall in that case be 90 days from the date
of establishment of the new arbitration panel.

4. Where a case referred to the arbitration panel pursuant to paragraph 2 raises a question of
interpretation of a concept of Union law or a question of interpretation of a provision of Union law
referred to in this Agreement, Article 174 shall apply mutatis mutandis.

Article 184: Negotiations on the future
relationship

The Union and the United Kingdom shall use their best endeavours, in good faith and in full respect
of their respective legal orders, to take the necessary steps to negotiate expeditiously the agreements
governing their future relationship referred to in the Political Declaration of 17 October 2019 and to
conduct the relevant procedures for the ratification or conclusion of those agreements, with a view
to ensuring that those agreements apply, to the extent possible, as from the end of the transition
period.